A Better Analysis

Ahmed Rashid, who knows more about the political situation in Central Asia than just about anybody, had an article over at Eurasia Insight yesterday. His key points are that the Andijan uprising wasn't instigated by Islamists, the Karimov repression is only helping the Islamist cause, and the US strategic interests in Uzbekistan - particularly the Khanabad airforce base - are diminishing in importance. Not that this has stopped the US from backing Karimov. I have one small note to make, which is that Rashid points out that State decertified Uzbekistan in July over its human rights record - costing the country some $18 million in loans (security and economic assistance), but DoD then stepped in with some $21 million in military assistance. This couldn't be clearer. To Karimov it says "carry on". To Americans it says that DoD is now running Uzbekistan policy; this is what explains the discrepancy Greg Djerejian noticed between State's attention to the country, and the administration's refusal to adequately condemn the current massacres.
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Note: One final thing that Rashid notes that I haven't seen anywhere else is that Karimov is reportedly extremely ill, and his three likely successors are all more ruthless than he is. Will there be a vacuum when he dies? Will China, Russia, and the US all be trying to get their own guys in power? This is a country to watch.